Can Gemini Overtake ChatGPT?

TL;DR

• Google’s Gemini trails behind ChatGPT in market share and popularity but is making notable advancements, raising the question: Can Gemini overtake ChatGPT?
• ChatGPT commands 62.5% of paid AI B2C sales in the US, while Gemini lags with 3.1%—but can Gemini overtake ChatGPT in the coming years?
• Google aims to grow Gemini’s user base to 500 million by the end of 2025, but the gap remains significant. Can Gemini overtake ChatGPT to meet this ambitious goal?

When ChatGPT debuted in 2022, it revolutionised the AI game, leaving competitors scrambling to catch up. Google’s Gemini is now in the race, armed with innovative features and ambitious goals. But can Gemini really close the gap—or even overtake ChatGPT? Let’s explore the facts, the advancements, and what the future holds.

Why ChatGPT Has the Lead

ChatGPT didn’t just make a splash—it created a tidal wave. From writing essays to assisting businesses, it’s been embraced by millions. Gemini, launched later, is still finding its footing. Here’s how ChatGPT maintains its dominance:

• Market Share: According to a January 2025 report from Earnest Analytics, ChatGPT owns 62.5% of US paid AI B2C sales (January 2025), compared to Gemini’s modest 3.1%.
• Retention Rates: The WSJ reported that ChatGPT boasts a 71% six-month retention rate, outpacing Gemini’s 56%.
• User Traffic: Sam Altman in Q4 shared that ChatGPT sees 300 million weekly users, dwarfing Gemini’s 275 million monthly visits at the end of 2024.

Gemini’s Current Challenges

The numbers don’t lie—Google has its work cut out. The disparity extends to mobile apps, where ChatGPT ranks 4th among free iPhone apps, while Gemini trails at 55th. With mobile-first users driving much of today’s engagement, this gap is a major hurdle.

What Gemini Brings to the Table

Despite its underdog status, Gemini is making waves in the AI space. Google has introduced impressive features:

• Gemini Live: Real-time conversation capabilities for dynamic interactions.
• Deep Research: Automated deep dives into complex topics, perfect for academics and analysts.
• News Integration: A partnership with the Associated Press ensures up-to-date, reliable news for users.

And there’s more to come—Google is banking on Gemini 2.0, promising faster responses and advanced functionalities. But can Gemini overtake ChatGPT in these aspects?

The Future of Gemini: Can It Catch Up With its User Base Growth?

Google’s goal is ambitious: 500 million users by the end of 2025. Achieving this requires:

• Aggressive Marketing: Leveraging Google’s global reach to attract new users.
• Continuous Improvement: Gemini must not only match ChatGPT’s features but offer unique, standout capabilities.
• User-Centric Focus: Success hinges on delivering real-world value that resonates with both personal and professional users.

A Word of Caution: AI Popularity Isn’t Everything—Gemini Advancements May Yet Win

Sure, ChatGPT is the market leader—but does that automatically make it the best for every user? Not necessarily. Here are a few things to keep in mind:

• Accuracy: Always verify outputs; AI can misinterpret or oversimplify.
• Personalisation: The best AI tool is the one that aligns with your needs and goals.
• Bias: All AI models have inherent biases—choose carefully based on your use case.

The AI race is about more than numbers; it’s about delivering value, reliability, and trust.

Join the Conversation

Which AI service gets your vote—Gemini or ChatGPT? Share your experiences and predictions in the comments below. Don’t forget to subscribe for updates on the latest in AI and AGI—we’re just getting started!

You may also like:

• Google Gemini: How To Maximise Its Potential
• Everyday Hacks with Google and Microsoft AI Tools
• Beyond Search: Google Unveils App-Based Gemini Chatbot