AI Crushes Black Friday! See Who Won & Lost

Black Friday 2025 painted a fascinating picture of consumer behaviour. We saw record online spending, but it wasn't quite the straightforward boom you might expect. It seems AI played a pivotal role, subtly guiding shoppers through a landscape of tighter budgets and flat discounts.

AI's Guiding Hand in Record Online Sales

So, let's get straight to it. US shoppers absolutely smashed online spending records on Black Friday, hitting a whopping $11.8 billion. That's a 9.1% jump from last year, according to Adobe Analytics, who keep tabs on an incredible trillion visits to online retail sites. But here's the kicker: a massive chunk of that online activity, specifically the traffic to retail sites, was driven by AI. Adobe reported an astounding 805% surge in AI-driven traffic compared to last year!

This isn't just about people clicking on ads, mind you. We're talking about consumers actively using AI tools, like Walmart's Sparky or Amazon's Rufus, to compare prices, sniff out discounts, and generally navigate the shopping jungle. As Suzy Davidkhanian, an analyst at eMarketer, put it, "Consumers are using new tools to get to what they need faster." She added that large language models (LLMs) make the discovery process feel "quicker and more guided," which makes perfect sense when you're trying to find that perfect gift. It's like having a super-smart personal shopper right there with you! We've seen how powerful AI chatbots can be when power users know how to route around their limits, and it seems consumers are getting pretty savvy themselves.

Globally, AI's influence was even more apparent, impacting a colossal $14.2 billion in online sales on Black Friday, with $3 billion stemming from the US alone, according to Salesforce. This just goes to show how deeply integrated AI is becoming in our daily lives, even down to our holiday shopping habits.

The Budget Squeeze and Flat Discounts

Now, while the sales figures look impressive, there's a bit more to the story. Despite spending more overall, consumers were definitely feeling the pinch. We're talking about tighter budgets, near four-year high unemployment, and consumer confidence at a seven-month low. People are watching every penny, and that's reflected in what they bought.

Salesforce noted that while US consumers spent $18 billion online (their data includes non-discretionary items like groceries), they actually purchased fewer items per transaction compared to last year. Order volumes fell by 1%, even as the average selling price shot up by 7%. This suggests that the higher spending figures are partly down to increased prices rather than consumers buying more.

The issue of flat discounts also popped up. AI certainly helped shoppers find the best deals available, but those deals weren't necessarily deeper than last year's. Average discount rates peaked at 28% in the US, pretty much on par with 2024. As Gartner Analyst Brad Jashinsky observed, many retailers offered similar percentage-off deals as last year, but the non-discounted prices had increased. So, while you might see "30% off," that 30% was off a higher starting price. As Michael Ashley Schulman, Chief Investment Officer at Running Point, highlighted, "The combination of higher prices and flat discounts means the real value of Black Friday bargains has slipped for consumers."

Shifting Shopping Habits: Online vs. In-Store

One of the most striking takeaways from Black Friday 2025 is the continued shift away from physical stores towards online shopping. Mastercard SpendingPulse reported a 10.4% growth in e-commerce sales, while in-store sales only crept up by 1.7%. This isn't a new trend, of course, but it's accelerating. Consumers are increasingly opting for the comfort of their homes to snag deals, especially when AI tools can help them navigate the digital aisles so effectively.

The era of the impulse holiday spree is ending. Consumers are in control, and they’re treating Black Friday as one data point in a much longer hunt for value." - Joe Shasteen, RetailNext

This sentiment is echoed by RetailNext, which found in-store traffic down by 3.6% compared to last year. However, it's worth noting that some retailers who offered unique in-store perks, like Target's limited-edition tote bags or Lowe's product giveaways, did see good turnouts. It seems that to lure shoppers into bricks-and-mortar stores, you need to offer something truly special beyond just discounts, especially when shoppers are using tools like ChatGPT to become their new shopping guru.

The Rise of "Buy Now, Pay Later"

Another interesting trend was the surge in "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) options. Adobe Analytics reported an 8.9% year-over-year increase in BNPL usage, driving $747.5 million in online spend. While this helps consumers make purchases during the holiday season, it does raise questions about post-holiday debt, as Circana’s Cohen wryly noted: "They're going to spend as much as they can possibly spend, and worry about it in 2026." This highlights the ongoing challenge of consumer debt, a topic frequently discussed in economic circles. For a deeper look at global economic trends and consumer behaviour, you might find this report from the Bank of England insightful: Inflation Report.

Looking Ahead to Cyber Monday and Beyond

Black Friday has certainly set the stage for Cyber Monday, which Adobe projected would be even bigger, with an estimated $14.2 billion in sales. Electronics, apparel, and computers are expected to see the deepest discounts, with some electronics hitting 30% off.

Overall, Black Friday 2025 wasn't just about sales figures; it was a clear demonstration of how AI is reshaping consumer behaviour and the retail landscape. We're seeing a more strategic, price-conscious shopper, armed with AI tools, navigating an environment of economic uncertainty. It's a complex picture, but one where technology is undeniably playing an increasingly influential role. And frankly, it's pretty exciting to see how these trends will continue to evolve!