TL;DR:
- Eric Schmidt predicts AI’s impact over the next two years will be profound, surpassing social media’s influence.
- Frontier models like OpenAI and Anthropic are leading the AI race, but funding and power are significant challenges.
- Schmidt suggests a shift from arbitrary language to digital commands will revolutionise programming.
The AI Revolution is Here
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is set to transform the world in ways we can barely imagine. Eric Schmidt, former CEO and Chairman of Google, believes the changes brought by large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT will be more profound than the impact of social media. This transformation will happen rapidly, within the next two years, and will affect every aspect of our lives.
The Power of Large Language Models
Large language models have reached a stage where they can interpret complex prompts and perform tasks that were once thought impossible. Schmidt highlights three key areas where AI will have a significant impact:
- Context Windows as Short-Term Memory: Developers can use context windows to give LLMs short-term memory, allowing them to process vast amounts of information quickly.
- AI Agents: These agents can read, understand, and apply complex concepts, such as chemistry, and use this knowledge to perform tasks.
- Text to Action: The ability to convert text into actions will revolutionise programming, making it accessible to everyone.
The TikTok Example
To illustrate the power of text to action, Schmidt uses the example of TikTok. If TikTok were banned, he proposes using an LLM to create a copy of the app, complete with users, music, and preferences, all within 30 seconds. This demonstrates the potential of AI to disrupt traditional programming and business models.
Money and Power: The Challenges Ahead
While the potential of AI is immense, there are significant challenges to overcome. Schmidt highlights two main obstacles:
- Funding: The leading AI companies, such as OpenAI, require vast amounts of money to continue their work. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, estimates the company needs $300 billion.
- Power: The energy required to power these AI models is beyond the current capabilities of the US power grid. Schmidt suggests partnering with Canada, which has abundant hydropower, to meet these energy needs.
The Race for AI Supremacy
Schmidt notes that the gap between the leading AI models and newcomers is widening. Six months ago, he believed the gap was closing, but now it appears to be growing. This highlights the importance of speed and risk-taking in the AI race. Companies that can move quickly and take calculated risks will have a significant advantage.
The Importance of Speed and Risk-Taking
Schmidt emphasises the need for speed in decision-making during this period of rapid change. He attributes Google’s underwhelming performance in AI to its culture, specifically its work-from-home culture, which he believes slows down decision-making. He also highlights the importance of risk-taking, citing Microsoft’s deal with OpenAI as an example of a risk that paid off.
Asia’s Role in the AI Revolution
Asia is poised to play a significant role in the AI revolution. With its vast population, technological prowess, and innovative spirit, Asia has the potential to lead the way in AI development and implementation. Countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are already investing heavily in AI, and their contributions will shape the future of this transformative technology.
The Future of AI in Asia
The future of AI in Asia is bright. As AI continues to evolve, it will create new opportunities and challenges. Asia’s tech-savvy youth are well-positioned to take advantage of these opportunities and drive innovation in the AI space.
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