AI Godfather's bleak warning: brace for jobpocalypse

Right, let's chat about something a bit heavy: the future of work with AI knocking at the door. You know, Geoffrey Hinton, often called the "godfather of AI" for his huge contributions, has some pretty strong opinions on where all this is headed. And it's not quite the blissful, automated paradise some might imagine.

The Blunt Truth About AI and Jobs

Hinton reckons that for AI to really make serious money, it's going to have to replace human jobs. "I believe that to make make money you’re going to have to replace human labor," he stated in a recent interview. It sounds rather stark, doesn't it? He thinks big companies are pouring billions into AI precisely because they expect it to lead to massive job replacement, and that's where the real profit lies.

It’s an interesting point when you look at the sheer amount of cash being thrown at the AI industry. We're talking mind-boggling figures, like OpenAI reportedly accounting for over a trillion dollars in infrastructure deals, yet still losing a fair chunk of change – apparently, £11.5 billion in just three months, according to Fortune. By traditional investment standards, that's not exactly a shining example of profitability, is it? We've seen these cycles before, often dubbed "AI winters," where funding for AI dries up. But this time feels different, doesn't it?

Hinton's argument is that these huge investments simply won't pay off without significantly impacting the job market. He doesn't see another way for it to be profitable on such a grand scale.

The Age-Old Cost of Labour

Historically, our market economies, ever since feudalism, have relied on human labour. Whether it was operating looms, working in steel mills, or building cars, people were essential. But here's the rub: human labour comes with a cost – wages, benefits, and all that good stuff. From an investor's perspective, or a corporate executive's, AI offers a tantalising solution to this "problem" of human labour eating into profits.

As tech researcher Jathan Sadowski puts it in his book, The Mechanic and the Luddite, AI "promises to solve the problems of capitalism by unlocking exponential growth, eliminating labor costs, deskilling workers, optimizing efficiency, and manifesting a slew of other outcomes." It's a pretty strong claim, suggesting that a lot of the hype around AI is actually rooted in the hope that it'll kick off a new era of social development where workers become, well, redundant.

This isn't just a concern for blue-collar jobs, either. We're seeing AI creep into various sectors, making some question if, for example, AI & Call Centres: Is The End Nigh? or if AI Artists are Topping the Charts Weekly.

The Good, the Bad, and How We Organise Society

Now, it's not all doom and gloom. Hinton isn't saying AI is inherently bad, like, say, nuclear weapons. He acknowledges that it can do "tremendous good" and significantly boost productivity across many industries. That should be a good thing, right? Check out our article on Top AI Tools: What They're Really For to see some of the positive applications.

The real kicker, though, is who benefits from all this "tremendous good". As Hinton wisely points out, that depends entirely "on how we organize society." It's a comment that resonates with some pretty profound historical ideas about economic structures and fairness. Organisations like the International Labour Organization (ILO) are already looking into the implications of AI on the world of work, highlighting the need for careful social planning to ensure fair transitions and benefits for all.

So, while countries like China: Structured Regulation with a Focus on Safety and Control and the EU's AI Act are trying to get a handle on regulating AI, the deeper question of its societal impact, particularly on jobs and economic equality, remains a massive challenge. It's not just about the tech itself, but about how we, as a society, choose to shape its role in our lives. And that's a conversation we all need to be a part of.