What if the display ad model that’s underpinned digital marketing for years is suddenly on the way out? According to Forrester, that is precisely what’s coming. Marketers are poised to cut display ad budgets by around 30 % in 2026, as audiences migrate away from the open web to AI‑generated summaries, chat interfaces, streaming video and connected TV (CTV).
For practitioners across Asia, this is a call to action: the display‑centric mindset must evolve. We’ll unpack the shifts behind it, the implications for media and agencies, and how brands in APAC ought to respond.
1. Why display ad budgets are going under the microscope
It’s a combination of shifting behaviour, new platforms and AI‑driven discovery. Forrester observes that even though consumers remain wary of generative AI, they are turning to AI‑generated summaries and chat interfaces which bypass traditional open‑web display ad environments.
The effect: fewer reachable audiences via the open web, declining click‑through rates and thus poorer ROI for standard display campaigns. Hence, the bold prediction that leading advertisers will cut display ad budgets by 30 % in 2026.
In Asia, these dynamics are already visible: streaming and mobile consumption are dominating, while ad‑blocker usage and attention fatigue increase. The open‑web “scattergun” display model may now look increasingly inefficient.
2. New destinations for engagement: CTV, streaming and offline
As display loses shine, where are marketers planning to redeploy their budgets? According to Forrester, toward entertainment‑first formats: connected TV (CTV), streaming audio, and social video.
Why these channels?
- They tap into the shift from search/discovery to AI‑driven discovery and immersive media.
- They offer richer storytelling and longer dwell times than a typical banner.
- In streaming or CTV contexts, the environment is more controlled; brands get more direct access to viewers.
Additionally, offline experiences are making a comeback. In the US, Forrester found 52 % of online adults actively sought in‑person experiences in 2025, signalling rising digital fatigue.
For APAC marketers, this dual pivot (to premium streaming and back to meaningful offline) offers opportunity. Think of hybrid campaigns that bridge CTV reach with experiential events in Singapore, Bangkok or Jakarta.
3. The agency ecosystem is undergoing structural change
If media‑buying is shifting, then agencies must shift too. Forrester’s “Predictions 2026: Marketing Agencies” report outlines how agencies will transform their business models.
Key changes:
- Agencies will cease being pure “agents” of clients and instead become “purveyors” of marketing solutions — selling execution, managed services, proprietary products and strategic partnerships.
- Retainer‑based models are giving way to project‑based, outcome‑based structures. One forecast: after an 8 % average headcount reduction in 2025, agencies will cut 15 % of jobs in 2026.
- Consolidation is on the cards: Forrester suggests a major holding company merger/acquisition (for example Havas acquiring dentsu’s international operations) could spark widespread agency reviews.
- Also notable: “principal media” models (where agencies resell inventory with margins/guarantees) will account for about a third of media under management in 2026.
For clients in Asia, that means the “agency you bought five years ago” may look very different by the end of 2026. Contract models, key performance indicators, even the role of human talent within agencies will all be under redesign.
4. Implications for APAC marketers and what to do next
Given these broad shifts, here are some practical take‑aways for marketing leaders across Asia:
Re‑evaluate display budgets now.
- Don’t simply continue “more of the same” display campaigns. Instead:
- Analyse how much of your display inventory reaches meaningful, engaged audiences.
- Look at ancillary metrics (time on site, downstream conversions) not just click‑through.
- Consider reallocation towards streaming/CTV, social video and experiential formats.
Think platform, not just inventory. Platforms that integrate AI discovery or deliver through non‑traditional channels will matter: voice assistants, chat UIs, embedded summaries. For example, as ChatGPT‑style interfaces become search/discovery hubs, brands need to explore how they appear there.
Hybridise online and offline. Given the resurgence of offline experiences, craft campaigns that combine digital reach with unexpected physical touchpoints: pop‑up events in Ho Chi Minh City, immersive brand activations in Melbourne, or “stream to in‑store” experiences in Tokyo. These help rebuild brand warmth and connection.
Re‑negotiate agency relationships. If your agency partner is still operating like a “media purveyor”, ask: “What solutions are you offering? How is your value‑pricing structured? What AI or automation powers your work?” Expect contracts to shift toward outcomes (e.g., brand lift, consumer engagement) rather than time and materials.
Prepare for measurement uncertainty. Forrester foresees a drop in marketer confidence: only 72 % of B2C marketing leaders will feel confident about measuring business impact in 2026 — down 7 percentage points from 2025.
All the more reason to build robust measurement frameworks now ahead of the storm.
5. A note of caution: Asia isn’t a mirror of the US
While much of Forrester’s data is US‑centric, the signals resonate in Asia — but there are regional nuances:
- For example, mobile‑first markets in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines) still have display ad opportunities through local apps and ad ecosystems.
- Regulation, privacy and data sovereignty matter more in APAC: the shift to CTV/social may be hampered by platform restrictions, localisation needs, ad measurement constraints.
- Offline experiences may take different forms: in Singapore or Korea, physical activations might be more digitally infused (QR codes, mobile sign‑ups) than purely analogue.
Thus, localise your strategy: don’t drop display wholesale, but shift it thoughtfully into the contexts that match your region and audience behaviour.
If display ad spend is going to be cut by 30 % in 2026, the question is not if but how brands, agencies and media owners will adapt. Are you ready to rethink where and how you engage? Will you lead the shift toward streaming, AI‑driven discovery and offline‑online hybrids — or risk being left playing catch‑up?
Latest Comments (8)
This 30% cut prediction by Forrester is certainly significant for 2026. Given the Malaysian digital economy blueprint emphasizes inclusive digital transformation, how might this shift impact smaller local businesses in their transition from traditional to digital advertising, especially if their foundational understanding leans heavily on display ad models? It raises questions for our national AI roadmap.
wow 30% cut by 2026 is wild! I've been seeing a definite pivot towards video for a while now but that Forrester prediction is a huge number. Makes total sense with how people are consuming content now, especially with tools like HeyGen making video creation so much more accessible for brands.
If consumers use AI for summaries, how marketers track attribution from new AI discovery model? This part unclear to me.
this whole "AI-driven discovery" thing is interesting, especially if it's bypassing traditional ads. but i'm a bit skeptical about how well it'll work in practice for languages beyond english. we're building an AI for vietnamese, and getting it to summarize and chat naturally, let alone influence discovery, is a huge challenge. the data just isn't there like it is for english. so while the open web might be shrinking, i wonder if the "AI-driven" replacement will really be as universal as forester suggests, or if it will mostly benefit the big english-speaking markets first.
Forrester's prediction of 30% cuts to display ad budgets seems aggressive. While AI-driven summarization, like what Qwen or DeepSeek can do, will shift discovery, the complete bypass of open web might be overstated.
Forrester's prediction of 30% display budget cuts by 2026 really makes sense when you look at what's happening in Thailand! 🇹🇭 We're seeing so many people here skipping traditional open web and going straight for AI summaries or streaming. My friends are all about TikTok and LINE TV now, not really clicking banner ads anymore. This shift to CTV and social video for "richer storytelling" definitely aligns with how brands are trying to connect with audiences here. It's like the old ways are just not hitting anymore, especially with ad blockers everywhere! 📉
this whole thing about AI-driven discovery bypassing traditional ads is so interesting. we're seeing something similar with Vietnamese language AI too. even though the models aren't perfect yet, people are definitely trying to get info in new ways through chatbots or summaries, rather than digging through websites with a million banner ads. it makes me wonder how long until these AI summaries themselves become a new ad placement opportunity here in Vietnam. especially for non-English content, where the open web experience can be pretty cluttered and low quality. we're working on making our NLP good enough to surface truly useful info, but the ad potential is always in the back of my mind!
the idea of "controlled environments" for brands in CTV worries me. are we just shifting from one surveillance model to another, but with a glossier interface? what about consent in these immersive spaces?
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